GBP/USD Technical Update: Support Gave Way, Trendline Broken
- Chloe Thompson
- Apr 27
- 3 min read
The 1.3350 support zone has failed and the ascending trendline that has supported Sterling since November 2024 is broken. Here is what it means for your hedge book.
Caption: GBP/USD Daily | Source: TradingView | SMA 20, 50, 200 | RSI (14)
In our recent analysis, we flagged the 1.3350 support zone as the critical level to watch — where the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and previous support/resistance converged. Buyers were defending it with long lower wicks. That defence has now failed.
GBP/USD has broken below both the 1.3350 support zone and the ascending trendline that has been in place since November 2024. The pair closed at 1.3218 — well below all three major moving averages and approaching the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3195 that we identified as the next downside target.
In simple terms: the uptrend that supported Sterling for over a year has broken down, and the key support level buyers had been defending is no longer holding.
Moving Averages
All three key moving averages now sit above the current price. The circled area on the chart shows price breaking down through the zone where the moving averages converge — a cluster of support that now acts as a ceiling:
20 SMA: 1.3443 — overhead
50 SMA: 1.3519 — overhead
200 SMA: 1.3440 — overhead
Price is now over 200 pips below the 200-day moving average. When all three moving averages stack above the price like this, it tells us the short, medium and long-term trends have all shifted in the same direction — lower.
The buyers who were defending 1.3350 have stepped aside. The floor is gone.
What to Expect Next
As with EUR/USD, when a support level and trendline of this significance break together, the market does not usually fall in a straight line. The more likely path in the short term is a temporary bounce — a brief recovery back towards the broken trendline or the 1.3350 area, before the downward move continues.
Think of it as the market retesting the broken floor to confirm it really has given way. Once that retest fails, the next leg lower typically follows with more conviction.
Where Could It Go?
The 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3195 is the immediate level to watch — price is almost there. A break below this opens the door to the psychological 1.3000 level, which also represents the full retracement of the November 2024 to January 2026 rally. Below 1.3000, the chart opens up considerably with limited structural support.
For the pair to reverse course, it would need to reclaim the broken trendline and push back above the cluster of moving averages around 1.3440–1.3520. That is over 200 pips higher from current levels — a significant move against the prevailing momentum.
RSI sits at 30.38 — deep into oversold territory. But as with EUR/USD, oversold in a structural breakdown confirms momentum rather than signalling a reversal.
What This Means for Your Hedges
If you are buying US dollars against Sterling and are currently hedged at levels below today's spot rate, this move — combined with the EUR/USD breakdown we reported earlier this week — reinforces the case for reviewing your hedge book now.
As the dollar strengthens, your existing hedge rates move closer to market. A controlled restructuring while the market is moving in your favour could materially improve your blended effective rate across both currency pairs.
Outlook: Bearish
Trendline broken | 1.3350 support failed | Below all major moving averages | RSI confirming momentum
Support: 1.3195 (78.6% Fib) → 1.3000 Resistance: 1.3440 (200 SMA) → 1.3519 (50 SMA)
Talk to us about your hedge book
Harden Financial Group works alongside corporate treasury teams to review existing hedge positions, identify restructuring opportunities, and execute through regulated counterparties on transparent, market-leading pricing. If you would like us to walk through your specific positions in light of this week's moves in EUR/USD and GBP/USD, we are available at your convenience.
Daniel Harden — Founder & CEO, Harden Financial Group
Wellington +64 21 882 344 | London +44 20 3807 7525
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Beaconsultant Pte. Ltd. (UEN: 202302557E) trading as Harden Financial Group.
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